GDP growth likely troughed in 1Q, but re-acceleration will be relatively modest. A shallower downturn means we have raised 2009 GDP growth from 2% to 4%. But 2010 GDP is still seen as low-key until exports and domestic investment see a more material recovery. The shakiness of Vietnam’s fundamentals will raise ongoing concerns, but the risk of a financial crisis of some sort continues to recede, in our view. Recurring fears for balance of payments (BoP) instability or a currency collapse seem entrenched among some investors, but such concerns are outdated.
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Vietnam+Economics